Turkey Escalates to Targeting Civilians with Transactional PKK Connections
Previously, civilian casualties from Turkish military operations were primarily incidental, occurring near conflict zones in the border areas. However, a new pattern has emerged: Turkey is now deliberately targeting civilians with transactional relationships to the PKK, particularly in Sulaimani. Notably, these precision drone strikes in urban areas distant from active combat zones are executed by Turkish intelligence rather than the military, contrasting with operations in frontline regions like Sidakan or Amedi.
Until recently, Ankara exercised caution in its targeted killings, likely due to the diplomatic sensitivities surrounding its interventions in Iraq. The current escalation may stem from a new trilateral agreement between Ankara, Baghdad, and Erbil, potentially granting Turkey greater operational latitude and a higher tolerance for what they might euphemistically term "collateral damage."
A recent incident illustrates this shift: a drone strike targeted a man and his two sons from the Pishdar area, adjacent to the Qandil mountains. In this economically challenged region, interactions with the PKK are often a matter of economic necessity rather than ideological alignment. The PKK's long-standing presence has led to the formation of social ties and even friendships with local populations. Until recent years, when frequent drone strikes made such interactions perilous, PKK members were known to engage in social visits with locals on a weekly basis.
The Pishdar man killed with his two son was reportedly a weapons trader. While concrete evidence is lacking, it's plausible that he conducted business with the PKK among other clients, without maintaining ideological or organizational affiliations. This scenario is representative of thousands of civilians whose livelihoods intersect with PKK activities, including those involved in supplying food and other necessities. The deliberate targeting of such individuals constitutes a clear violation of international law, as they retain their civilian status despite these economic interactions.
An alternative, albeit less probable, interpretation of the recent drone strikes merits consideration. It's well-documented that the PKK frequently rotates vehicles when operating in the area, potentially as a countermeasure to local intelligence networks that have been increasingly aiding Turkish drone operations with precise targeting information. However, this hypothesis loses credibility when examining the profiles of the recent targets. The individuals struck in the past two days don't fit the pattern of car dealers or recent vehicle purchasers—profiles that might align with PKK vehicle rotation tactics. Instead, the victims share a more pertinent commonality: both hail from the Pishdar region, an area where the PKK maintains robust local connections. Their occupations further support the likelihood of PKK interactions. The target from yesterday was reportedly a weapons dealer, while today's victim was a driver engaged in diverse business activities, including the transport of substantial quantities of food. These occupational profiles, combined with their geographical origins, strongly suggest that their targeting was predicated on potential PKK dealings rather than vehicle-related activities. This pattern reinforces the primary interpretation that Turkey is deliberately targeting civilians with transactional, non-ideological relationships to the PKK, rather than pursuing a more indirect strategy aimed at disrupting the group's logistical operations.
A parallel case involves the recent arrest in Erbil of an individual for supplying food to the PKK. It's crucial to understand the local perspective: for many in these areas, engaging with the PKK is viewed similarly to interactions with any other Kurdish political entity. This context is vital in comprehending the motivations behind these dealings, which are often driven by economic necessity rather than any intent to harm Turkey or support militant activities.
Turkey's evolving strategy appears aimed at disrupting the PKK's local support networks and increasing the risks associated with PKK interactions. However, this approach comes at the cost of escalating civilian casualties. Furthermore, this approach fails to account for the complex socio-economic realities of the region. For many inhabitants of remote villages, their livelihood fundamentally depends on these transactions. The lack of viable economic alternatives means that such intimidation tactics are unlikely to significantly deter local engagement with the PKK. Instead, this strategy may primarily serve to exacerbate civilian suffering without achieving its intended strategic objectives.
The tragic irony lies in targeting individuals whose involvement with the PKK is often circumstantial, driven by complex socio-economic factors. This nuanced reality stands in stark contrast to the binary perspective seemingly adopted by those operating the drones.