Seat Allocation for October Election Based on 2021 Iraqi Election Results
Based on the 2021 Iraqi general elections, here is a projection of seat allocation if the same voter percentages were applied to a system where each province is a single electoral district. Note that this projection may not fully represent actual voter preferences, as the original election used multi-district provinces and some parties did not field candidates in all districts:
However, it is important to note: This projection assumes each province as a single electoral district and may not fully represent actual voter preferences due to differences in the original election system. KDP and PUK seat numbers include quota seats. The provincial distribution is an estimate based on overall numbers and previous proportions.
Halabja, 3 seats:
Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU): 29.3% (projection: 1 seat)
PUK: 21.8% (projection: 1 seat)
Kurdistan Justice Group (KJG): 20.3% (projection: 1 seat)
Sulaimani, 38 seats:
PUK: 32% (projection: 12 seat)
New Generation: 28% (projection: 10 seat)
KDP:18% (projection: 5 seat)
KJG: 11% (projection: 4 seat)
Gorran: 5% (projection: 1-2 seat)
KIU: 4% (projection: 1-2 seat)
Others: 6% (2 seats)
Quota: 2 seats (PUK-leaning)
Erbil, 34 seats:
KDP: 59% (projection: 19 seat)
New Generation: 18% (projection: 6 seat)
PUK: 15% (projection: 5 seat)
KJG: 4.4% (projection: 1 seat)
Quota: 2 seats (KDP-leaning)
Duhok, 25 seats:
KDP: 66% (projection: 16 seat)
KIU: 20.5% (projection: 5 seat)
PUK: 5% (projection: 2 seat)
New Generation: 5% (projection: 1 seat)
Quota: 1 seat (KDP-leaning)
Thus, the total number of seats each group will receive are:
KIU: 8 seats
PUK: 22 seats (including quotas)
KJG: 6 seats
New Generation: 17 seats
KDP: 43 seats (including quotas)
Gorran: 2 seats
Others: 2 seats