Population Estimates: Christians and Turkmen in the Kurdistan Region
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is home to a diverse population, including significant numbers of Christians and Turkmen. This analysis presents estimates of the Christian and Turkmen populations as percentages of the total population in the region's three provinces: Erbil, Duhok, and Sulaimani. For the purposes of this study, "Christians" include Assyrians, Chaldeans, Syriacs, and Armenians.
Turkmen Population (per PM Barzani’s AVA Media):
Erbil: 9.54%
Sulaimani: 0.21%
Duhok: 0%
The Turkmen population estimate is intriguing, as it is challenging to obtain an accurate figure. While there is a significant Turkmen population in Erbil, they almost exclusively live in the city rather than throughout the entire province. Estimating their numbers is difficult because many Turkmen have assimilated into the wider Kurdish society. Unlike in Kirkuk, where many Turkmen maintain a tighter community, the majority of Turkmen in Erbil have intermarried with Kurds, blurring the lines between Turkmen and Kurdish identities.
The Turkmen Front claims that the Turkmen population in Erbil is 400,000. However, their claim appears to be based on exaggerated hyperbole rather than logical estimates, possibly to emphasize the city's Turkmen identity. On the other hand, AVA Media's claim of 200,000 Turkmen in Erbil is interesting because, unlike Christians who are delineated from Kurdish society due to religious differences, Turkmen in Erbil, who are predominantly Sunni Muslims, are much more integrated into Kurdish society.
Determining an accurate estimate of the Turkmen population in Erbil would require a thorough study that takes into account the complex social, cultural, and religious dynamics of the region. The intermarriage between Turkmen and Kurds, as well as the assimilation of Turkmen into Kurdish society, make it particularly challenging to establish clear demographic boundaries. As such, any estimates should be approached with caution, considering the potential for political or cultural biases to influence the figures.
Christian Population (per PM Barzani’s AVA Media):
Erbil: 3.72%
Duhok: 3.76%
Sulaimani: 0.032%
In addition to the AVA Media data, the Shlama Foundation, a Christian NGO, provides notably different estimates for the Christian population in the three provinces. Based on the Shlomo Foundation's estimates, the percentage of Christians in each province is as follows:
Erbil: 1.49%
Sulaimani: 0.12%
Duhok: 2.03%
The significant discrepancy between the AVA Media and Shlomo Foundation estimates for the Christian population in the Kurdistan Region could be interpreted in two ways. First, the AVA Media's projection appears to have underestimated the Christian population in Sulaimani while overestimating those in Erbil and Duhok. This discrepancy might be attributed to the fact that the AVA Media published this data as part of their criticism of the new quota seat allocations by the Iraqi Electoral Court, potentially publishing exaggerated or inaccurate figures to score political points.
Alternatively, the Shlama Foundation's data might not account for the Christian IDPs who originally hail from Mosul or Baghdad but currently reside in Erbil or Duhok. This could explain the lower estimates provided by the Shlomo Foundation compared to the AVA Media's figures.
Without further information on the methodologies employed by both sources, it is difficult to determine which estimate is more accurate. However, the Shlama Foundation has a database that breaks down the population in small districts and subdistricts, which may lend their data more credibility and accuracy. Despite this, the discrepancy between the two sources highlights the challenges in obtaining precise demographic data in the region and the potential for political or other factors to influence population estimates.
How does the current data compare to the 1957 census?
Interestingly, the 1957 census, widely regarded as Iraq's most accurate, revealed that Christians comprised 2.71% of Erbil's population and 0.63% of Sulaimani's population. However, specific data for Duhok is unavailable as it was part of Mosul at that time. It is worth noting that the 1957 census did not include an ethnic component.
Methodology
The total population estimates for the provinces of the Kurdistan Region were provided by the Iraqi Planning Ministry:
Erbil: 2,097,205
Sulaimani: 2,320,434
Duhok: 1,461,457
Estimates for the Christian and Turkmen populations in the Kurdistan Region were sourced from the KRG Prime Minister's AVA Media:
Christian Population:
Erbil: 78,000
Duhok: 55,000
Sulaimani: 750
Turkmen Population:
Erbil: 200,000
Sulaimani (Kifri): 5,000
In addition to the AVA Media data, the Shlomo Foundation, a Christian NGO, provided the following estimates for the Christian population in the three provinces. It is important to note that this data likely does not account for the Christian IDPs who now reside in Erbil or Duhok:
Erbil: 31,156
Duhok: 29,652
Sulaimani: 2,760
This analysis provides an overview of the estimated Christian and Turkmen populations in the Kurdistan Region, drawing from multiple data sources to present a clearer picture of the region's demographic composition.