𝐀 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐧𝐭𝐢-𝐃𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐊𝐊?
In a new report, Middle East Eye, a publication close to the Turkish government, claimed that the PKK may have obtained anti-drone missiles, likely from Iran. You can read the report here. This analysis aims to assess the likelihood of the allegations cited in the report.
First, it's important to note that these are assumptions from Turkish government circles. However, if the PKK has indeed obtained such anti-drone missiles, they must have come from a country, as the PKK certainly cannot develop them independently. But is that country Iran?
• While we don't have definitive proof, it is a possibility. The PKK has historically maintained strategic ties with Iran, and it would be in Iran's interest not to see the PKK fully defeated. Turkey is the only true rival to Iran in the region, and fully defeating the PKK would turn Turkey into a stronger regional power, certainly not in Iran's interest. However, Iran also doesn't want the PKK to become too strong.
• Furthermore, Iran has a vested interest in tarnishing the reputation of Turkish drones, which have become one of the world's leading exports in the field. Iran has its own drone industry, but it has been overshadowed by Turkey's, so they certainly have a strategic and logical reason to undermine Turkey's success.
• Additionally, there have been previous reports of the PKK's growing activities in southern Sulaimani under PUK supervision, in areas over 300 km from the Turkish border. This corroborates the idea that the missiles might have been assembled there.
• The plausibility of these allegations is further supported by the tone of recent Turkish statements against the PUK, which are softer and promise numerous benefits if the PUK simply stops collaborating with the PKK. In these statements, Turkey has even said that they don't expect the PUK to take action against the PKK, but merely to refrain from collaborating with them. This might hint at a strategic collaboration, but given the distance from the Turkish border, Turkey's options are much more limited.
• But are there other countries that might have provided the anti-drone systems? The other candidates are the US and Israel, but we believe these are less likely due to how and where the anti-missile systems operated. Furthermore, unlike the Syrian Kurdish SDF, the core PKK leadership led by Cemil Bayik has much closer historical ties with Iran, and it is unlikely that they would strategically collaborate with Israel to turn Iran against themselves. While the PKK is certainly not a proxy of Iran but rather strategically aligned with them to further their own interests, given the geography where the PKK operates, having both Turkey and Iran as their enemies would spell the end for them. The PKK has consistently proven to be shrewd and possessing high strategic acumen, making it unlikely for them to make such a mistake.
However, it's crucial to remember that these are all speculations. That being said, the manner in which the drones are being downed resembles how Israeli and US drones have been brought down in Yemen and Lebanon, so these speculations cannot be entirely dismissed.
Good. I hope they did provide them. Armed Turks should go back to Turkey.